Updated: February 28, 2021
Today is Super Tuesday when voters in 14 states will cast their ballots from coast to coast to allocate 1,357 delegates to either Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden. Elizabeth Warren, Mike Bloomberg and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard may not have a big impact.
Below are the states and the number of delegates for each of the states with California and Texas having more delegates than all others.
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How to accrue delegates on Super Tuesday?
Under the Democratic National Committee’s rules, candidates must win at least 15 percent —either in the statewide vote or in each congressional district to accrue delegates.
Texas is the only state that awards delegates by state Senate districts while every other state does so by congressional districts.
lf a candidate wins less than 15 percent of the votes, they get no delegates at all, zero.
The New York Times offered this explanation on how candidates could split today’s delegates.
“How many candidates are above the 15 percent threshold is critical.
“Say just two candidates make it, one with 40 percent of the vote and another with 20 percent, with everyone else below 15 percent. The candidate with 40 percent would receive two-thirds of the district’s delegates, the candidate with 20 percent would get one-third, and everyone else would get nothing. So the more candidates that reach the threshold, the more evenly divided the district’s delegates are.The only candidate likely to make the 15 percent threshold everywhere — or nearly everywhere — is Mr. Sanders. Everyone else is fighting not necessarily to beat him in states, but to hold down what is expected to be Mr. Sanders’s delegate lead at night’s end. If it is only Mr. Sanders and one other rival who make the 15 percent threshold in most places, and there is little consistency in who those other rivals are, it will allow Mr. Sanders to build a nearly insurmountable delegate advantage heading toward states that vote later in in the calendar”.
How will race influence Super Tuesday?
It is expected that blacks would mainly vote for Joe Biden, Latinos would mainly vote for Bernie Sanders and whites mainly vote for Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
Where are the battleground states on Super Tuesday?
The main battle will therefore be in California where Sanders is expected to do well. If he does not do well in California and Texas, with the Democratic Party establishment now rallying around Joe Biden, his candidacy may almost be over.
How many delegates does a Democrat need to win the nomination?
For now, Sanders has 60 allocated delegates. Biden has 54 allocated delegates while Warren has 8.
To get the Democratic Party nomination, a candidate needs at least 1991 delegates.
To reach that number would likely take weeks from now as no candidate will be able to reach that threshold on Super Tuesday. But if one candidate wins many delegates and as an unsurmountable advantage, the other candidates may drop out.
There you have it, our short analysis.