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Africa’s oil and gas outlook 2020. Key insights, 25 big players to watch, opportunities and risks to confront Updated for 2021

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Updated: February 26, 2021

The African Energy Chamber has released a summary of its African energy outlook in 2020. A comprehensive report would be made available soon.

Key insights

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Strategic: The low oil price environment is forcing African producers to sharpen their competitive edge. Several governments, including Angola, Gabon, and Cameroon, have implemented reforms. Nigeria could be next. There are at least six announced oil projects in that west African country with a combined output potential of 837,000 bpd and CAPEX of $54 billion which could be brought on-stream over the next decade. A favorable regulatory and fiscal environment are essential to delivering that investment. IMO 2020 regulations will yield increased Asian demand for west African crude. Nearly 75 percent of the 461,000 bpd of heavy sweet crude ideal for producing low-sulphur bunker fuels is made in west Africa, according to ClipperData.

Production: The Outlook includes production forecasts for 21 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2019 to 2025, produced by Global Data. Total oil and gas production is expected to increase by nearly 28 percent to 8.1 mmboe/d, by 2025. Nigeria and Angola will continue to dominate but their share of regional production will fall by more than one fifth (to 58 percent) during this period, a shift driven in part by significantly increased output from Mozambique, Senegal/Mauritania and Tanzania.

Investment: The Outlook profiles over 40 post- and pre-FID oil and gas projects across sub-Saharan Africa. There are currently nine oil projects under construction across the region with a combined peak production total of 256,000 bpd and investment of $16.2 billion. A further eight gas projects are also under construction, with combined CAPEX of $44 billion and peak production capacity of 3,650 mmcf/d.

Rise of African Gas: African producers are positioning themselves to maximise from a gas boom expected for the next decade. East Africa could see $60 billion worth of investment and 25.2 mtpa of LNG production capacity sanctioned by IOCs in 2020. Chinese investment in Ethiopia and Djibouti is also opening a new frontier for gas production.

Twenty Five Leaders to Watch in African Energy: As part of the AEC’s mission to build bridges between key industry stakeholders, the Outlook includes an insider’s list of the top 25 leaders to watch. The list includes industry executives, ministers and financiers who will shape African oil and gas in the coming years.

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